Virtual Laboratories > The Poisson Process > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 [8]

8. Notes


Simulating the One-Dimensional Poisson Process

With the method used in this chapter, all of the random variables in the Poisson process on [0, infinity) are ultimately constructed out of a sequence of independent random variables, each having the exponential distribution with parameter r. Thus, to simulate this process, we just need to know how to simulate independent exponential variables using random numbers.

Recall that if F is the distribution function of a random variable X, then F-1 is the quantile function. Moreover, if U is uniformly distributed on the interval (0, 1), (thus, U is a random number) then F-1(U) has the same distribution as X. This quantile method of simulating X requires, of course, that we be able to compute the quantile function F-1 in closed form. Fortunately, this can be done for the exponential distribution.

Mathematical Exercise 1. Show that if Uj, j = 1, 2, ... is a sequence of random numbers, then the sequence below simulates independent random variables, each having the exponential distribution with rate parameter r.

Xj = -ln(1 - Uj) / r, j = 1, 2, ...

Thus, these variables simulate the interarrival times for a Poisson process on [0, infinity). Therefore, the arrival times are simulated as

Tk = X1 + X2 + ··· + Xk for k = 1, 2, ...

and the counting variables are simulated as

Nt = #{k: Tk <= t} for t > 0.

Simulating Higher Dimensional Poisson Processes

We can also simulate a Poisson variable directly. The general method in the following exercise is also is a special case of the quantile method discussed above.

Mathematical Exercise 2. Suppose that f is discrete density function on {0, 1, 2, ...}. If U is uniformly distributed on (0, 1) (a random number), show that variable defined below has density f:

N = j if and only if f(0) + ··· + f(j - 1) < U <= f(0) + ··· + f(j).

Now we can use the result in Exercise 4 to simulate a Poisson process in a region D of Rk. We will illustrate the method with the rectangle D = [a, b] × [c, d] in R2 where a < c and b < d. First, use a random number U to simulate a random variable N that has the Poisson distribution with parameter r(b - a)(d - c), as in the previous exercise. Next, if N = n, let U1, U2, ..., Un and V1, V2, ..., Vn be random numbers and define

Xi = a + (b - a)Ui, Yi = c + (d - c)Vi for i = 1, 2, ..., n.

Mathematical Exercise 3. Show that the random points of the Poisson process with rate r on D are simulated by

(Xi, Yi), i = 1, 2, ..., n.

Books

For more information about Poisson processes and their many generalizations, see

Selected Answers for Section 2

Answer 2.8. Let X denote the call length.

  1. P(2 < X < 4) = 0.4237
  2. Q1 = 1.4384, Q2 = 3.4657, Q3 = 6.9315, Q3 - Q1 = 5.4931

Answer 2.9. Let T denote the lifetime

  1. P(T > 2000) = 0.1353
  2. Q1 = 287.682, Q2 = 693.147, Q3 = 1386.294, Q3 - Q1 = 1098.612.

Answer 2.14. Let T denote the time between requests.

  1. E(T) = 0.5, sd(T) = 0.5
  2. P(T < 0.5) = 0.6321
  3. Q1 = 0.1438, Q2 = 0.3466, Q3 = 0.6931, Q3 - Q1 = 0.5493

Answer 2.15. Let X denote the lifetime.

  1. r = 0.02231
  2. E(X) = 44.814, sd(X) = 44.814
  3. Q1 = 12.8922, Q2 = 31.0628, Q3 = 62.1257, Q3 - Q1 = 49.2334.

Answer 2.16. Let X denote the position of the first defect.

  1. r = 0.01
  2. P(X < 200 | X > 150) = 0.3935.
  3. sd(X) = 100
  4. Q1 = 28.7682, Q2 = 69.3147, Q3 = 138.6294, Q3 - Q1 = 109.8612

Selected Answers for Section 3

Answer 3.4. 0.1991

Answer 3.5. 0.1746

Answer 3.10. 2, 0.6325

Answer 3.11. r = 1 / 10, k = 4

Answer 3.16. 0.5752

Answer 3.20. r = hits 6.67 per minute

Selected Answers for Section 4

Answer 4.6. 0.7798

Answer 4.7. 0.8153

Answer 4.12. 32, 5.657

Answer 4.20. 0.8818

Answer 4.23. 0.6

Answer 4.26. 0.9452

Answer 4.30. r = 5.7 per minute

Selected Answers for Section 5

Answer 5.6. 0.5814

Answer 5.11.

  1. 515
  2. 50

Selected Answers for Section 6

Answer 6.10. 0.7350

Answer 6.13.

  1. 0.1227
  2. 0.0803

Selected Answers for Section 7

Answer 7.3.

  1. 0.4562
  2. 2.5, 1.581

Answer 7.4.

  1. 0.2426
  2. 24, 4.899

Answer 7.5.

  1. r = 80 per square mile
  2. 0.0171

Answer 7.12. 0.0491

Answer 7.15. 0.2146

Answer 7.17.

  1. Mild: 7.854, 2.802; Moderate: 4.712, 2.171; Severe: 3.142, 1.772
  2. 0.7762