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7. The Bivariate Normal Distribution


Definition

Suppose that U and V are independent random variables each, with the standard normal distribution. We will need the following five parameters:

µ1 and µ2 in R, d1 and d2 > 0, and p in [-1, 1].

Now let X and Y be new random variables defined by

The joint distribution of (X, Y) is called the bivariate normal distribution with parameters µ1, µ2, d1, d2 and p.

Basic Properties

For the following exercises, use properties of mean, variance, covariance, and the normal distribution.

Mathematical Exercise 1. Show that X is normally distributed with mean µ1 and standard deviation d1.

Mathematical Exercise 2. Show that Y is normally distributed with with mean µ2 and standard deviation d2.

Mathematical Exercise 3. Show that cor(X, Y) = p.

Mathematical Exercise 4. Show that X and Y are independent if and only if cor(X, Y) = 0.

Simulation Exercise 5. In the bivariate normal experiment, change the standard deviations of X and Y with the scroll bars. Watch the change in the shape of the probability density functions. Now change the correlation with the scroll bar and note that the probability density functions do not change.

Simulation Exercise 6. In the bivariate normal experiment, set the standard deviation of X to 1.5 and the standard deviation of Y to 0.5. For each of the following correlations, run the experiment 2000 times with an update frequency of 10. Watch the cloud of points in the (X, Y) scatterplot and note the apparent convergence of the empirical density function to the probability density function: p = 0, p = 0.5, p = -0.5, p = 0.7, p = -0.7, p = 0.9, p = -0.9.

Density Function

We will now use the change of variables formula to find the joint probability density function (X, Y).

Mathematical Exercise 7. Show that inverse transformation is given by

  1. u = (x - µ1) / d1.
  2. v = (y - µ2) / [d2(1 - p2)1/2] - p(x - µ1) / [d1(1 - p2)1/2].

Mathematical Exercise 8. Show that the Jacobian of the transformation in the previous exercise is

d(u, v) / d(x, y) = 1 / [d1d2(1 - p2)1/2].

Note that the Jacobian is a constant; this is because the transformation is linear.

Mathematical Exercise 9. Use the previous exercises, the independence of U and V, and the change of variables formula to show that the joint density of (X, Y) is

f(x, y) = C exp[Q(x, y)]

where the normalizing constant C and the quadratic form Q are given by

If c is a constant, the set of points {(x, y) in R2: f(x, y) = c}is called a level curve of f (these are points of constant probability density).

Mathematical Exercise 10. Show that

  1. The level curves of f are ellipses centered at (µ1, µ2)
  2. The axes of these ellipses are parallel to the coordinate axes if and only if p = 0.

Simulation Exercise 11. In the bivariate normal experiment, set the standard deviation of X to 2 and the standard deviation of Y to 1. For each of the following correlations, run the experiment 2000 times with an update frequency of 10 and watch the cloud of points in the (X, Y) scatterplot: p = 0, p = 0.5, p = -0.5, p = 0.7, p = -0.7, p = 0.9, p = -0.9.

Transformations

The following exercise shows that the bivariate normal distribution is preserved under affine transformations.

Mathematical Exercise 12. Define W = a1X + b1Y + c1 and Z = a2X + b2Y + c2. Use the change of variables formula to show that (W, Z) has a bivariate normal distribution. Identify the means, variances, and correlation.

Mathematical Exercise 13. Show that the conditional distribution of Y given X = x is normal with mean and variance given by

  1. E(Y | X = x) = µ2 + p d2 (x - µ1) / d1.
  2. var(Y | X = x) = d22 (1 - p2).

Mathematical Exercise 14. Use the representation of X and Y in terms of the independent standard normal variables U and V to show that

Y = µ2 + d2 p (X - µ1) / d1 + d2 (1 - p2)1 / 2 V.

Now give another proof of the result in Exercise 13 (note that X and V are independent).

Simulation Exercise 15. In the bivariate normal experiment, set the standard deviation of X to 1.5, the standard deviation of Y to 0.5, and the correlation to 0.7.

  1. Run the experiment n =100 times, updating after each run.
  2. For each run, compute the E(Y | X = x), the predicted value of Y given the value of X.
  3. Over all 100 runs, compute the square root of the average of the squared errors between the predicted value of Y and the true value of Y.

The following problem is a good exercise in using the change of variables formula and will be useful when we discuss the simulation of normal variables.

Mathematical Exercise 16. Recall that U and V are independent random variables each with the standard normal distribution. Define the polar coordinates (R, T) of (U, V) by the equations

U = R cos(T), V = R sin(T) where R > 0 and 0 < T < 2.

Show that

  1. R has density function g(r) = r exp(-r2 / 2), r > 0. The distribution of R is known as the Rayleigh distribution.
  2. T is uniformly distributed on (0, 2).
  3. R and T are independent.

The results of this section have straightforward analogues for the general multivariate normal distribution.